KeyCorp

KeyCorp (KEY) Market Cap

KeyCorp has a market capitalization of $23.70B.

Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31

Price: $21.80

β–² 0.13 (0.60%)

Market Cap: 23.70B

NYSE Β· time unavailable

CEO: Christopher Marrott Gorman

Sector: Financial Services

Industry: Banks - Regional

IPO Date: 1987-11-05

Website: https://www.key.com

KeyCorp (KEY) - Company Information

Market Cap: 23.70B Β· Sector: Financial Services

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses. It also provides a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance, as well as commercial mortgage loans comprising consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology loans for middle market clients. In addition, the company offers community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of approximately 999 branches and 1,317 ATMs in 15 states, as well as additional offices, online and mobile banking capabilities, and a telephone banking call center. KeyCorp was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

Analyst Sentiment

70%
Strong Buy

Based on 22 ratings

Analyst 1Y Forecast: $22.42

Average target (based on 5 sources)

Consensus Price Target

Low

$18

Median

$24

High

$26

Average

$23

Potential Upside: 6.0%

Price & Moving Averages

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πŸ“˜ Full Research Report

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AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

πŸ“˜ KeyCorp (KEY) β€” Investment Overview

🧩 Business Model Overview

KeyCorp operates as one of America’s prominent regional bank-based financial services companies. Its principal subsidiary, KeyBank, provides a broad slate of banking products and services targeting a wide array of clients, including retail consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, corporate clients, and institutions. The company’s operations span commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management, with a footprint concentrated primarily in the Midwest, Northeast, and Pacific Northwest. KeyCorp serves customers through a blended approach of brick-and-mortar branches, digital platforms, and dedicated client relationship teams, focusing on localized service and deep community banking roots.

πŸ’° Revenue Model & Ecosystem

KeyCorp’s multi-stream revenue engine encompasses both interest-based and fee-based income sources. Core lending activities generate net interest through a suite of personal and commercial loans, mortgages, and credit lines. In parallel, non-interest revenue arises from a variety of services, including treasury management, investment banking, wealth advisory, payments, and deposit-related fees. The company’s ecosystem also leverages cross-selling opportunities, embedding financial products within client relationships to drive recurring engagement and loyalty across the consumer and institutional base.

🧠 Competitive Advantages

  • Brand strength: KeyCorp carries longstanding brand equity, particularly in regional markets where it has deep community ties and recognition.
  • Switching costs: Integrated solutions for commercial customers and specialized lending (such as equipment finance) raise client switching barriers, often embedding KeyCorp within clients’ financial operations.
  • Ecosystem stickiness: Cross-selling of banking products, wealth management, and advisory services creates holistic client relationships, increasing customer retention and share-of-wallet.
  • Scale + supply chain leverage: As one of the largest regional banks in its operating regions, KeyCorp benefits from scale in both technology investment and back-office efficiency, competing effectively with both smaller community banks and larger national players.

πŸš€ Growth Drivers Ahead

KeyCorp’s growth prospects center around digital transformation, ongoing expansion of commercial banking services, and deepening penetration within high-potential client segments such as middle-market companies and affluent individuals. Investments in digital capabilities and fintech partnerships are enhancing customer acquisition and operating efficiency. Additionally, inorganic growth through selective acquisitions and niche lending verticals enable KeyCorp to enter new markets or augment its service toolkit. The company also stands to benefit from broader trends in business formation, regional economic development, and increased demand for personalized banking solutions.

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

KeyCorp faces business risks including intense competition from traditional banks, digital disruptors, and non-bank financial entities. Regulatory changes can impact lending practices, capital requirements, and compliance costs. The interest rate environment directly affects lending margins and the value of deposits. Macroeconomic downturns or shifts in credit quality can pressure asset values and loan performance. Additionally, ongoing digital disruption and evolving customer expectations require sustained investment in technology and innovation to retain relevance.

πŸ“Š Valuation Perspective

The market generally values KeyCorp in relation to its regional banking peers, considering factors like capitalization, risk profile, and geographic diversification. While the company’s valuation often reflects its scale and relative stability in core markets, the presence of larger money-center banks and faster-growing fintech lenders can contribute to a valuation discount. Conversely, differentiated fee income streams, successful digital initiatives, or prudent credit management can command a relative premium during favorable industry cycles.

πŸ” Investment Takeaway

KeyCorp offers investors exposure to a regionally diversified, full-service banking franchise with opportunities to benefit from ongoing digital transformation and targeted market expansion. The company's strong community presence, cross-selling ecosystem, and scale provide defensive qualities, while technology investments and new service lines offer a path to growth. However, persistent margin pressures, regulatory risks, and rising competition from fintech challengers require ongoing vigilance. The investment thesis hinges on management’s ability to navigate industry shifts while preserving KeyCorp’s local-market strengths and diversified revenue base.


⚠ AI-generated research summary β€” not financial advice. Validate using official filings & independent analysis.

KeyCorp delivered a strong Q4 and record full-year 2025 with double-digit revenue growth, expanding NIM, and improved credit quality. Management exceeded prior targets, accelerated capital return with buybacks, and maintained robust capital levels. 2026 guidance calls for high single-digit revenue growth, continued positive operating leverage, stable credit, and healthy fee and loan pipelines, underpinned by asset repricing tailwinds. Tone was confident, emphasizing momentum, disciplined execution, and increased return of capital.

Growth

  • Q4 revenue up 12% y/y (adjusted); FY revenue a record, up 16%
  • Q4 tax-equivalent NII up 15% y/y; NIM 2.82% (+7 bps q/q)
  • Q4 noninterest income up 8% y/y; investment banking fees +10%; commercial payments fee-equivalent revenue +12%; wealth fees +10%
  • C&I loans up ~$1.0B q/q on averages; commercial spot loans +$1.2B
  • Wealth AUM reached a record $70B; since 2023 mass affluent added 54k households, ~$4B AUM and $7B total client assets

Business Development

  • Board: nominees Tony D’Spirito (ex-BlackRock) and Chris Henson (ex-Truist/BB&T); lead independent director role transitioned to Todd Vasos
  • Director retirements: Carlton Highsmith and Ruth Ann Gillis at annual meeting; David Wilson retired due to health
  • Added ~10% to frontline bankers across wealth, commercial payments, middle market, and investment banking
  • Invested ~$100M incremental in technology focused on client-facing capabilities
  • Raised nearly $140B of client capital in 2025; retained ~20% on balance sheet

Financials

  • Q4 EPS $0.43 ($0.41 adjusted)
  • Q4 revenue >$2B; expenses +2% y/y; operating leverage strong
  • Provision $108M (includes $104M NCOs); Q4 NCO ratio 39 bps; FY NCOs 41 bps
  • Tangible book value per share up 3% q/q and 18% y/y
  • Average deposits +$0.3B q/q; commercial client deposits +$2B; brokered CDs averaged $2.5B and declined $1.3B q/q
  • Total deposit cost 1.81% (-16 bps q/q); cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta 51%; interest-bearing funding beta 67%
  • Investment banking and debt placement fees $243M (+10% y/y)
  • Commercial mortgage servicing fees $68M; 2026 run-rate expected $50–$60M per quarter
  • Client escrow deposit change reduces fees by ~$40M annually with offsetting NII/NIM benefit (net neutral to earnings)

Capital & Funding

  • Repurchased $200M of common stock in Q4 at ~$18/share; plan at least $300M in Q1 2026 and at least $1.2B for FY26
  • CET1 11.7%; marked CET1 10.3%; targeting marked CET1 toward 9.5%–10% by 2026 while maintaining strong ratios
  • Allowed ~$2.4B of higher-cost brokered CDs, long-term debt, and other short-term borrowings to mature, enabled by commercial deposit growth
  • Noninterest-bearing deposits 19% of total (24% adjusted for high-burn accounts)
  • Balance sheet positioned to be fairly neutral to additional Fed funds cuts in 2026

Operations & Strategy

  • Remixing runoff of low-yielding consumer loans into higher-yielding relationship commercial loans
  • Focus on priority fee-based businesses (investment banking, wealth, payments) with sustained pipelines
  • Scaling embedded banking capabilities and expanding into new geographies
  • Ongoing hiring of producers; leveraging underutilized platforms
  • Maintaining strong risk discipline; improving NPAs, criticized loans, and delinquencies

Market & Outlook

  • 2026 guidance: total revenue ~+7%; NII +8% to +10%; noninterest income +3% to +4% (or +5% to +6% adjusted for business decisions)
  • Segment outlook 2026: investment banking fees ~+5%; wealth fees high single digits; commercial payments fees low double digits
  • Expenses +3% to +4% (~half revenue growth), implying +300 to +400 bps operating leverage
  • Average loans +1% to +2%; commercial loans ~+5% as consumer loans run off
  • Full-year 2026 NCO ratio expected 40–45 bps
  • $17B of low-yielding swaps, securities, and consumer mortgages expected to mature/prepay in 2026, supporting NII/NIM
  • Healthy loan and fee pipelines; middle market M&A expected to improve; favorable new issuance backdrop
  • NIM guidance supported by deposit remixing and funding cost optimization; rate sensitivity positioned near neutral

Risks Or Headwinds

  • Fee growth reliant on capital markets and M&A activity materializing as expected
  • Further rate moves could affect deposit betas and funding costs despite neutral positioning
  • Commercial mortgage servicing fees sensitive to rate environment; guided lower than prior peaks
  • RWA growth from commitment increases and loan mix could pressure capital as buybacks accelerate
  • Execution risk on expense control and producer ramp-up; Q4 included ~$30M elevated expenses not assumed to recur
  • Modest overall loan growth given intentional consumer runoff; continued dependence on remix strategy

Sentiment: POSITIVE

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the KEY Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

Fundamentals Overview

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πŸ“Š AI Financial Analysis

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Earnings Data: Q Ending 2026-01-20

"At the close of Q4 2025, KeyCorp reported a revenue of $2.86 billion and a net income of $510 million. The EPS was recorded at a scant $0.0004 due to an exceptionally high share count. Free cash flow details were unavailable. Year-over-year revenue growth was moderate, and the net income reflected a healthy operational outcome, though margin details were absent. Notably, cash flow indices were missing for the quarter, raising questions on liquidity. In terms of balance sheet health, KeyCorp carries a total asset value of $184.38 billion against liabilities of $164 billion, resulting in an equity base of $20.38 billion, accompanied by a net debt of $9.71 billion. The company's P/E ratio is approximately 11.27, with a notable dividend yield of 5.49% and a FCF yield of 6.32%. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at a concise 0.76, indicating manageable leverage. The stock has appreciated by 10.64% over the year and 35.04% over the last six months, signaling strong investor confidence. Analyst targets suggest further upside with a consensus target of $23.25. Price changes and business fundamentals cast KeyCorp as an attractive opportunity relative to its sector peers."

Revenue Growth

Neutral

Revenue reached $2.86 billion in Q4, showing moderate growth, driven by expansion in retail and commercial banking segments. Despite stability, growth indicators have remained moderate without significant accelerations.

Profitability

Fair

The profitability, highlighted by a net income of $510 million, is solid though EPS remained remarkably low due to high share count. ROE at 2.18% suggests room for increased operational efficiency.

Cash Flow Quality

Caution

No data on FCF or operational cash flows for the quarter suggests liquidity monitoring. Dividends remain steady, providing some degree of cash return but liquidity metrics were suboptimal without disclosed positive FCF.

Leverage & Balance Sheet

Good

Balance sheet integrity is strong with a low debt-to-equity of 0.76, and total assets significantly cover liabilities. The financial resilience is apparent with an adequate equity buffer.

Shareholder Returns

Strong

KeyCorp has offered a cumulative 10.64% price increase over the year and 35.04% over the past six months. This growth supports a high score due to strong market performance, despite no buybacks and steady dividends.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

Positive

Valuation seems fair at 11.27 P/E with robust FCF yield of 6.32% and attractive dividends. Recent stock trends and analyst target consensus of $23.25 imply potential undervaluation, providing scope for upward revaluation.

Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.

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SEC Filings (KEY)

Β© 2026 Stock Market Info β€” KeyCorp (KEY) Financial Profile