LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) Market Cap
LiveWire Group, Inc. has a market capitalization of $412.8M.
Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31
Price: $2.02
▲ 0.15 (8.02%)
Market Cap: 412.77M
NYSE · time unavailable
CEO: Karim Donnez
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
IPO Date: 2020-11-24
Website: https://www.livewire.com
LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) - Company Information
Market Cap: 412.77M · Sector: Consumer Cyclical
LiveWire Group, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of electric motorcycles in North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia Pacific regions. It offers its products under the LiveWire brand name. The company has strategic partnerships with Harley-Davidson, Inc. and the KYMCO Group. LiveWire Group, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Analyst Sentiment
Based on 1 ratings
Analyst 1Y Forecast: $0.00
Average target (based on 1 sources)
Consensus Price Target
Low
$8
Median
$8
High
$8
Average
$8
Potential Upside: 271.3%
Price & Moving Averages
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Fundamentals Overview
📊 AI Financial Analysis
Powered by StockMarketInfo"LVWR reported revenue of $11.36M in its latest fiscal year, accompanied by a net loss of $17.62M and an EPS of -$0.0863. The company holds total assets of $146.41M against liabilities of $100.38M, resulting in equity of $46.03M and negative net debt of $7.05M, indicating a cash position. Operating cash flow stands at -$7.90M, with net cash flow also in negative territory at -$8.93M. LVWR has no recent dividend payouts. The stock price is currently at $1.32, with a disappointing 1-year price change of -37.44%, reflecting significant erosion in market value. Despite the potential upside reflected in a price target of $7.5, the negative performance over the past year casts doubt on the company's trajectory. The lack of positive cash flow and profitability continues to be a concern for investors, underscoring the ongoing challenges facing this company."
Revenue Growth
Revenue of $11.36M shows some traction but remains low on a comparative scale.
Profitability
Net income is negative, indicating a lack of profitability and operational challenges.
Cash Flow Quality
Consistently negative cash flows highlight significant cash management issues.
Leverage & Balance Sheet
A solid equity position and negative net debt showcase a relatively stable balance sheet.
Shareholder Returns
No dividends paid and negative price performance significantly detract from shareholder returns.
Analyst Sentiment & Valuation
Price target suggests potential value, but current performance creates skepticism among analysts.
Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.
So what: Management’s tone is cautiously constructive—“green shoots” from accelerating North American retail into December and improved dealer profitability signals—yet the quantified base is still deteriorating. Q4 shows clear financial stress: consolidated revenue -28% and Q4 EPS loss of $2.44, with the operating loss widening to -$361M. The company attributes part of the pain to deliberate dealer inventory actions (wholesale reductions/promotions) but also to hard costs, notably tariffs (2025: $67M; 2026: $75M–$105M) and operating deleverage from production below wholesale. On the margin line, HDMC gross margin fell 380 bps in 2025 (24.2% vs 28.0%) and management explicitly expects continued margin pressure in 2026. The strategic reset is real—inventory down 17% globally (better than the 10% target), e-commerce corrective shift in North America, and $150M run-rate savings from cost review—but near-term analyst pressure would likely focus on how fast touring overhang and incentive intensity normalize versus management’s “transition year” framing.
Growth Catalysts
- Grand American touring strength in Q4: +6% retail, supported by promotional support
- Lower-priced sport model momentum in Q4: +33% retail (updated pricing/marketing resonated)
- All-new redesigned Trike models launching for 2026 (inventory tightly managed into Jan 2026 launch)
- Introduction of a more affordable lineup focused on critical price-point motorcycles to “stoke demand”
- LiveWire 2026 growth focus: launch of s four Honcho products (production targeted to begin later in 2026)
- Brand/portfolio reset aimed at restoring customization demand and improving parts & accessories execution
Business Development
- HDFS transaction closed in Q4: strategic partnership with KKR and TIMCO to transform Harley Davidson Financial Services into a capital-light, derisked model
- Sale of a 9.8% common equity interest in HDFS to KKR and PIMCO
- HDFS capital benefits: funded a $1.0 billion dividend from HDFS to HDI in Q4; additional dividend expected in Q1
- Accelerated share repurchase (ASR) with Goldman Sachs to repurchase $200 million of LVWR shares (ASR; $160 million delivered before 12/31; remainder early 2026)
- LiveWire term loan renegotiated and funded in Q4: principal reduced to $75 million
Financial Highlights
- Consolidated Q4 revenue: down 28% (HDMC revenue -10%; HDFS revenue -59%)
- Consolidated Q4 operating income: loss of $361 million (vs operating loss of $193 million in 2024); driven by HDMC operating loss of $260 million and HDFS operating loss of $82 million
- Q4 EPS: loss of $2.44 (vs loss of $0.93 in 2024)
- Full-year 2025 consolidated revenue: $4.5 billion (down 14%); full-year operating income: $387 million (vs $417 million in 2024)
- Full-year 2025 EPS: $2.78 (vs $3.44 in 2024)
- HDMC gross margin (full year 2025): 24.2% vs 28.0% prior year (down 380 bps), driven by incremental tariff impacts, operating deleverage, and lower volumes
- Tariffs: cost of new/increased tariffs was $67 million in full-year 2025; forecast $75 million to $105 million in 2026 (backdrop: tariffs likely more uniformly over the entire calendar year in 2026 vs partial/backloaded in 2025)
- HDFS discrete liability management cost in Q4: $73 million (debt retirement tied to the transaction) contributing to HDFS operating loss of $82 million in Q4
- Q4 retail promotions/accrual: consumer promotion continued into 2026; company took accrual in Q4 2025 financials
Capital Funding
- Ending cash & cash equivalents: $3.1 billion (up $1.5 billion vs a year ago); HDFS transaction facilitated a $1.0 billion dividend in Q4
- Additional dividend expected to be paid in Q1 (implied to keep total dividend consistent with original expectation)
- Planned HDFS debt reduction: maturity of a EUR $700 million medium-term note in Q2 as part of capital allocation strategy
- Share repurchases: in Q4, $200 million ASR with Goldman Sachs (total full-year 2025 repurchases $347 million or 13.1 million shares, ~11% of shares outstanding at 12/31/2024; ASR included)
- LiveWire term loan: principal reduced to $75 million; LiveWire working to attract additional external capital
Strategy & Ops
- Dealer inventory intervention: reduced wholesale shipments and implemented targeted promotions to accelerate rebalancing of retail inventory
- Dealer inventory levels: North America down 16% vs year-end 2024; global dealer inventory down 17% (exceeded the stated 10% global reduction target)
- E-commerce reset (North America): reevaluating e-commerce due to customer confusion and excessive discounting driven pressure on dealer economics; shifting model to drive incremental dealership traffic to support motorcycle sales
- Fuel facility model guidelines adjusted: updated scope to better balance global brand identity with local community celebration
- Touring overhang: touring inventory overhang described as “pronounced,” being worked down with disciplined interventions intended to move product without undermining long-term brand value
- Cost and capacity alignment: manufacturing capacity and overhead built for materially higher volumes than current demand; conducting end-to-end cost base review with third-party specialists
- Cost savings target: at least $150 million of annual run-rate savings expected to impact 2027 and beyond
- Operating deleverage expectation: 2026 margins pressured due to production runs below wholesale (deleverage effects explicitly flagged)
- Corporate office: leadership team back in Milwaukee (Juneau Avenue) with formal reopening later in the quarter to improve speed, collaboration, and accountability
Market Outlook
- 2026 HDMC unit guidance: retail units 130,000 to 135,000; wholesale units 130,000 to 135,000; expectation that retail and wholesale are largely one-to-one (after inventory balance reset)
- 2026 production approach: production units at HDMC expected to be lower than wholesale shipped to prudently manage overall company inventory levels (deleverage impact expected)
- 2026 tariff cost forecast: $75 million to $105 million of new/increased tariffs (vs $67 million incurred in full-year 2025); tariffs likely more uniformly applied across calendar year 2026
- 2026 segment operating income guidance: HDMC positive $10 million to a loss of $40 million; HDFS $45 million to $60 million
- Strategic plan timing: expected strategic plan announcement in May
Risks & Headwinds
- Touring inventory overhang: “pronounced” touring overhang remains a key operational hurdle (explicitly tied to wholesale/retail rebalancing actions and expectations for near-term financial impact)
- Macro headwinds: EMEA retail sales down 24% in Q4 (full-year 2025: -11%); EMEA “adversely impacted by overall macroeconomic conditions”
- Pricing sensitivity and discretionary demand: company cites volatility in big-ticket discretionary sectors; pricing is “top of customers’ minds” due to inflation/interest rates
- Inventory availability constraints: Grand American Touring Trike down 24% in Q4 due to very tight inventory availability ahead of January 2026 new Trig launch
- Tariff uncertainty and cost: 2025 tariff costs $67 million; 2026 forecast $75 million to $105 million; company expects greater overall cost because tariffs likely applied more uniformly in 2026
- Operating leverage pressure: 2026 expected production runs below wholesale creating operating deleverage, pressuring margins
Sentiment: CAUTIOUS
Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the LVWR Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.