Moelis & Company

Moelis & Company (MC) Market Cap

Moelis & Company has a market capitalization of $5B.

Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31

Price: $67.59

0.55 (0.82%)

Market Cap: 5.00B

NYSE · time unavailable

CEO: Navid Mahmoodzadegan

Sector: Financial Services

Industry: Financial - Capital Markets

IPO Date: 2014-04-16

Website: https://www.moelis.com

Moelis & Company (MC) - Company Information

Market Cap: 5.00B · Sector: Financial Services

Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory firm. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters. The company offers its services to public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The company serves its clients in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia. It has strategic alliances in Mexico with Alfaro, Dávila y Scherer, S.C.; and in Australia with MA Moelis Australia. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Analyst Sentiment

58%
Buy

Based on 11 ratings

Analyst 1Y Forecast: $74.67

Average target (based on 3 sources)

Consensus Price Target

Low

$58

Median

$80

High

$83

Average

$75

Potential Upside: 10.5%

Price & Moving Averages

Loading chart...

📘 Full Research Report

ℹ️

AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

📘 MOELIS CLASS A (MC) — Investment Overview

🧩 Business Model Overview

Moelis & Company (Moelis), trading under the ticker MC, operates as a leading global independent investment bank. The firm offers financial advisory services to corporations, governments, and financial sponsors across various sectors and geographies. Moelis’s business is rooted in providing strategic advice relating to mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestitures, restructurings, capital markets, and other corporate financial matters. As an independent, employee-owned firm, Moelis stands apart from diversified financial institutions by focusing exclusively on advisory, eschewing lending, proprietary trading, or other capital-intensive operations. The firm leverages a partnership-based model and senior banker-led client relationships to provide tailored, high-value solutions for complex, high-impact transactions.

💰 Revenue Streams & Monetisation Model

Moelis derives revenue predominantly from advisory fees, which are typically transaction-based and earned upon completion of mandates. These revenues are categorized into M&A advisory, restructuring advisory, and capital markets advisory. Engagements often include upfront, monthly, and success fees, with the majority of fee income realized upon the successful closing of transactions such as mergers, acquisitions, asset sales, or financial restructurings. Moelis does not hold assets on its balance sheet, nor does it engage in market-making or asset management, which insulates the firm from direct credit or market risk. The firm’s highly variable, performance-based revenue model aligns with transaction activity in the financial markets, making annual revenues sensitive to the volume and size of global dealmaking.

🧠 Competitive Advantages & Market Positioning

Moelis holds significant competitive advantages through its commitment to independence, deep sector expertise, and a global footprint that spans major financial centers. The company's partnership model incentivizes senior bankers to build enduring client relationships, encouraging high standards of service and repeat business. Independence from lending alleviates conflicts of interest that can arise for full-service banks and is increasingly valued in a regulatory environment focused on transparency and alignment of interests. Additionally, Moelis has a history of attracting and retaining high-performing bankers, driving its reputation for high-quality advisory services in complex transactions, including cross-border deals and distressed situations. The firm's nimble structure allows for rapid client response and customization, differentiating it from larger, more bureaucratic peers.

🚀 Multi-Year Growth Drivers

Several secular and cyclical trends have positioned Moelis for long-term growth: - **M&A Market Expansion:** The increasing globalization of commerce, ongoing corporate consolidation, and a dynamic private equity landscape have bolstered demand for high-quality M&A advisory services. - **Restructuring Activity:** Periodic economic downturns and sector-specific disruptions create recurring demand for restructuring and recapitalization advisory, an area of recognized expertise for Moelis. - **Disintermediation from Bulge Brackets:** Regulatory changes and client preferences are leading many companies to favor independent advisors over full-service banking conglomerates due to perceived conflicts and greater objectivity. - **Sector and Regional Diversification:** Expansion into emerging industries (such as technology, healthcare, and ESG-driven companies) and untapped geographies provides meaningful avenues for client base growth. - **Human Capital Expansion:** Ongoing recruitment of senior advisory talent and sector specialists facilitates further penetration into new client segments and coverage of evolving financial needs. - **Capital Markets Advisory:** Increasing corporate activity in debt and equity capital markets, including IPOs and SPAC-related transactions, provides ancillary revenue opportunities.

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

Investors should remain mindful of several risks inherent to Moelis's business model and industry: - **Cyclicality & Deal Flow Volatility:** Moelis's revenue is highly sensitive to the macroeconomic environment and global deal activity, both of which can fluctuate sharply. - **Talent Retention and Competition:** The loss of senior bankers or inability to attract top talent could impair client relationships and revenue growth, given the human capital-intensive nature of the business. - **Fee Compression:** Competitive pressures may reduce advisory fee rates, particularly as the industry attracts new entrants and clients exercise greater bargaining power. - **Regulatory and Legal Risks:** Changes in global regulatory regimes, or involvement in significant legal proceedings or conflicts of interest, could impact the firm's operations and reputation. - **Geopolitical and Market Risks:** Exposure to international markets and cross-border transactions introduces currency, political, and economic risks beyond domestic factors. - **Concentration Risk:** Dependence on large, high-value transactions means that revenue can be uneven and subject to outsized influence by a small number of mandates.

📊 Valuation & Market View

Moelis is typically valued on metrics such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), and dividend yield against both publicly traded independent advisory peers and larger diversified financials. The firm's asset-light, high-return model supports strong free cash flow conversion, enabling a dividend policy that historically appeals to yield-seeking investors. However, valuation multiples often reflect the company's cyclical earnings profile and investor perception of deal flow sustainability across market cycles. Comparative analysis typically examines the firm’s growth, margin stability, and capital return policy versus other leading independent advisors, accounting for Moelis’s differentiated exposure to restructuring advisory and global dealmaking.

🔍 Investment Takeaway

Moelis & Company represents a compelling specialized exposure to the global M&A and advisory ecosystem, characterized by an independent, asset-light model with a focus on high-value, high-touch services. The firm’s market positioning is underpinned by its senior talent, client-centric philosophy, and expanding global presence. While subject to inherent cyclicality and human capital risks, Moelis’s strategic focus and diversified advisory expertise support an attractive long-term investment case for those seeking leverage to global corporate activity with relatively low balance sheet risk. Prudent risk monitoring and appreciation of earnings variability remain essential considerations for investors evaluating a position in Moelis Class A shares.

⚠ AI-generated — informational only. Validate using filings before investing.

Fundamentals Overview

Loading fundamentals overview...

📊 AI Financial Analysis

Powered by StockMarketInfo
Earnings Data: Q Ending 2025-12-31

"For the year ending December 31, 2025, MC reported revenue of $487.9M and net income of $87.9M, translating to an EPS of $1.17. Operating cash flow was $198.9M with a free cash flow of $179.6M. On the balance sheet, total assets stood at $1.81B against total liabilities of $1.13B, yielding a strong equity position of $680.4M and net debt of -$241.4M, indicating a well-capitalized company with more cash than debt. Despite a robust cash generation capability, MC has experienced a challenging market performance, evidenced by a 1-year stock price decrease of 14.11%. The stock is currently trading at $54.1, with a consensus price target of $76.83, indicating potential upside. The company has also maintained a consistent dividend payout of $0.65 per share, albeit in a declining market environment."

Revenue Growth

Neutral

Stable revenue of $487.9M with consistent generation.

Profitability

Neutral

Solid net income of $87.9M reflects good profitability.

Cash Flow Quality

Positive

Strong operating cash flow and positive free cash flow.

Leverage & Balance Sheet

Good

Healthy balance sheet with net cash position.

Shareholder Returns

Caution

Negative share price performance impacts total returns.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

Fair

Consensus price target suggests upside but market sentiment is cautious.

Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.

Management’s tone is strongly constructive: record Q4 revenues ($488m, +11% YoY) and +28% FY adjusted revenues ($1.54b), alongside large profitability momentum (adjusted pretax margin +510 bps to 21.5% and a 320 bps improvement in the adjusted compensation ratio to 65.8%). The core “so what” from Q&A is that the upside is real but timing-dependent: sponsors are not yet at equilibrium—management explicitly says there’s “a fair amount to go” before a step-change in sponsor deal volumes occurs, and it expects broader mid-market reopening in 2026 as tariff/inflation/financing-cost frictions dissipate. Analyst pressure focused on (1) sponsor reactivation magnitude, (2) the base case for liability management run-rate, and (3) 2026 revenue cadence. Management avoided precise revenue-month guidance but did give directional guardrails: CSA expected flat to up, and compensation ratio further improvement depends on banker pay/competition. Overall, guidance is qualitative, but the operating levers (mix shift, comp leverage, PCA ramp) are specific.

AI IconGrowth Catalysts

  • Record new business generation and elevated client activity levels into 2026
  • M&A momentum: 35% growth in M&A in 2025 with double-digit increases in average fees and number of completed transactions
  • Capital markets strength: record-setting 2025 year and increased investor appetite across growth-oriented sectors
  • GP-led secondary/PCA ramp gaining traction; management expects continued ramp over the next few years
  • Operating leverage from compensation ratio improvement

Business Development

  • M&A mandates cited: Netflix acquisition of Warner Bros.; Allied Gold sale to Zijin Gold; Ventix Biosciences sale to Eli Lilly
  • Non-M&A / advisory examples cited: USA Rare Earths partnership with the U.S. Department of Commerce; debt restructuring of King of dula Economic City; xEnergy pre-IPO convert transaction
  • Sponsor relationships driving momentum in 2026; emphasis on opening the “aperture” to mid-market deals (finance costs/tariffs/inflation headwinds dissipating per management)
  • PCA build: hiring an additional Managing Director focused on private credit secondaries (joining next week) and another MD later in 2026 to reach 7 MDs dedicated to GP-led secondaries

AI IconFinancial Highlights

  • Q4 2025 revenues: $488m, +11% YoY
  • Full-year 2025 adjusted revenues: +28% to $1.54b
  • Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS: $2.99 (+64% vs $1.82 in 2024)
  • Adjusted compensation ratio: 61.1% (Q4) and 65.8% (FY); improvement of 320 bps vs prior year and down from 69% last year
  • Adjusted noncompensation expense ratio: 12.4% (Q4) and 14.6% (FY) down from 15.9% prior year
  • Adjusted noncompensation expenses forecast: FY 2026 expected to grow at a similar rate to 2025 (given tech/data/AI investments, deal T&E/client conferences, higher occupancy costs due to headcount growth)
  • Adjusted pretax margin: 28.6% (Q4) and 21.5% (FY); +510 bps improvement vs 16.4% adjusted pretax margin in 2024
  • Tax: normalized corporate tax rate 29.8%; effective tax rate 22.4%; excess tax benefit from equity-based compensation delivery in 1Q expected to favorably impact Q1 EPS

AI IconCapital Funding

  • Cash and balance sheet: $849m cash; no debt
  • Q4 buybacks: 716,000 shares repurchased at average $62.96/share
  • Total 2025 repurchases: ~950,000 shares
  • Capital returned to shareholders for 2025 performance year: $284m (dividends + net settlement of shares + open market repurchases)
  • New authorization: share repurchase program up to $300m with no expiration date

AI IconStrategy & Ops

  • Hiring/promotions: added 21 managing directors in 2025 (9 lateral hires); promoted additional 13 professionals to Managing Director at start of 2026; total MD count 178
  • PCA operational milestone: GP-led secondaries capability integrated with industry sponsor coverage; PCA ramp described as “ramping pretty much exactly the way I thought it would ramp.”
  • Cost drivers acknowledged: deal-related T&E and client conferences; technology/data investments including AI; higher occupancy due to headcount growth

AI IconMarket Outlook

  • 2026 transaction environment: management says constructive environment for transactions and is “optimistic” for 2026 and beyond; pipeline described as near record / at all-time highs
  • Sponsor activity: management expects opening of the market in 2026 as LP capital return pressure continues and financing markets improve
  • Seasonality note: management expects Q1 to be the weakest quarter seasonally but declined to give month-by-month revenue guidance
  • Creditor site capabilities for CSA: management stated they are predicting flat to up (vs earlier year predicted flat to down) for 2026 CSA strength

AI IconRisks & Headwinds

  • Sponsor re-engagement timing risk: management sees sponsor volumes still short of “equilibrium” levels; believes “a fair amount to go” before sponsors reach more normal levels of deal volumes driven by capital return balance
  • Middle-market underwriting friction in 2025: management cited financing costs, tariffs, and inflation as making mid-market buyouts harder to underwrite; these pressures are said to have dissipated for 2026
  • Geopolitical risk: uncertainty can reduce activity if there is a significant flare-up; absent a “very visible geopolitical thing,” management believes boards are increasingly proceeding given technology disruption/strategic positioning needs
  • AI disruption can create counter-cyclicality: management noted they have not yet seen an AI-driven restructuring opportunity example “in the near term”; however, AI-driven multiple devaluations in software/SaaS may shift transaction mix toward liability-management-type outcomes rather than classic M&A
  • Competition for talent: banker pay/competition risk highlighted as a key determinant of whether compensation ratio can continue moving below 65.8% in 2026
  • Cost risk: management expects noncompensation expenses to grow at a similar rate as 2025 despite comp leverage progress

Sentiment: POSITIVE

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the MC Q4 2025 (reported Feb 4, 2026) earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

Loading financial data and tables...
📁

SEC Filings (MC)

© 2026 Stock Market Info — Moelis & Company (MC) Financial Profile