Moderna, Inc.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Market Cap

Moderna, Inc. has a market capitalization of $21.22B.

Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31

Price: $53.72

-0.96 (-1.76%)

Market Cap: 21.22B

NASDAQ · time unavailable

CEO: Stéphane Bancel

Sector: Healthcare

Industry: Biotechnology

IPO Date: 2018-12-07

Website: https://www.modernatx.com

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) - Company Information

Market Cap: 21.22B · Sector: Healthcare

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Analyst Sentiment

51%
Hold

Based on 24 ratings

Analyst 1Y Forecast: $32.05

Average target (based on 6 sources)

Consensus Price Target

Low

$17

Median

$35

High

$63

Average

$36

Downside: -33.6%

Price & Moving Averages

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AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

📘 Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) — Investment Overview

🧩 Business Model Overview

Moderna, Inc. operates as a pioneering biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines. Its core business encompasses research and production of mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics. The company’s primary customer base is comprised of national governments, global health organizations, healthcare providers, and in some cases, private sector entities. Its operations span critical domains such as infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, and autoimmune disorders, leveraging an advanced in-house platform to rapidly design and deploy novel treatments. Moderna’s platform-centric approach enables a diverse research pipeline targeting public health needs beyond its high-profile infectious disease vaccines, embedding the company across global biopharmaceutical value chains.

💰 Revenue Model & Ecosystem

Moderna’s revenue streams are anchored in commercial sales of vaccines, research collaborations, and strategic partnerships. The company’s portfolio extends beyond single-point products to encompass recurring revenues through government contracts and advance purchase agreements for its vaccine products. Additionally, Moderna engages in co-development and licensing agreements that can yield milestone-driven payments and service-based income. As it expands further into therapeutic verticals, additional service and royalty streams may arise from successful candidate commercialization, bolstering diversity within its revenue ecosystem. The balance across enterprise (government, institutional) contracts and, in the future, potential consumer-facing offerings, provides multiple channels for monetization rooted in its core intellectual property.

🧠 Competitive Advantages

  • Brand strength: Moderna has established significant global recognition as a leader in mRNA medicines, elevating its reputation among policymakers, healthcare professionals, and the public.
  • Switching costs: Proprietary technology platforms and established distribution partnerships create tangible and intangible barriers for incumbent customers evaluating alternative providers.
  • Ecosystem stickiness: Deep integration of its mRNA platform with regulatory authorities, supply chains, and healthcare programs fosters long-term engagement and data-driven R&D feedback loops.
  • Scale + supply chain leverage: Demonstrated ability to manufacture mRNA products at industrial scale, combined with global logistics partnerships, enables rapid deployment and supply resilience few peers can match.

🚀 Growth Drivers Ahead

Moderna’s future growth will be driven by the continued expansion of its research pipeline across infectious diseases, cancer vaccines, and rare disorders. The adaptable nature of the mRNA platform allows for accelerated development timelines and iterative refinements, supporting portfolio breadth and scientific innovation. Strategic alliances with governments and industry partners deepen market penetration and secure future demand for novel vaccines and therapeutics. Additionally, as mRNA applications broaden beyond preventive care into chronic and personalized medicine, the company is positioned to capture a share of new addressable markets. Ongoing investments in manufacturing capacity and emerging digital health capabilities further support scalable, global growth.

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

Moderna faces evolving competition from both traditional pharmaceutical giants and new entrants investing in genetic and mRNA technologies. Regulatory environments, which can fluctuate in response to health priorities and political issues, may impact product approvals, market access, and reimbursement. As the product portfolio diversifies, maintaining healthy margins may require overcoming pricing pressures, supply chain complexities, and high R&D costs. Finally, technological disruption and scientific setbacks—such as unanticipated safety or efficacy outcomes—could materially affect development timelines and commercialization prospects.

📊 Valuation Perspective

The market commonly benchmarks Moderna against a dual universe: established vaccine manufacturers and innovative biotechnology firms. Sentiment often reflects the company’s perceived innovation premium—attributable to its scalable mRNA platform and pipeline potential—but may be tempered by the inherent risks and unpredictable commercialization paths typical of next-generation therapeutics. Investor assessments fluctuate between growth optimism based on addressable market expansion, and caution, given sector volatility and pipeline execution risk.

🔍 Investment Takeaway

The Moderna investment thesis centers on its position as a transformative platform innovator in biopharma, leveraging mRNA technology to address global health challenges at scale. The bull case is grounded in the commercial and strategic opportunity embedded in its research pipeline, as well as the agility and branding advantages that distinguish it from legacy peers. Conversely, the bear case considers dependence on a limited number of approved products, the competitive and regulatory landscape complexity, and the execution hurdles tied to emerging science. Overall, Moderna represents a high-risk, high-reward profile within the broader biotechnology sector, deserving careful consideration from investors attuned to both scientific and market dynamics.


⚠ AI-generated research summary — not financial advice. Validate using official filings & independent analysis.

Moderna reported improved cost discipline and a narrower loss in 2025, with Q4 revenue at the high end of guidance and a strong cash position aided by a credit facility draw. Management guided to up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, primarily from international markets and local manufacturing ramps, with revenue heavily second-half weighted. Commercial momentum for MNEXT Spike and strategic country partnerships support the outlook, while pipeline progress continues across RSV, flu/combo, norovirus, and oncology INT. However, the FDA’s refusal-to-file for the U.S. flu program and continued COVID demand declines temper near-term visibility, making the tone mixed but execution-focused.

Growth

  • Guides 2026 total revenue growth of up to 10%, driven primarily by international markets and local manufacturing ramp in the U.K. and Australia
  • MNEXT Spike built U.S. retail share (24% overall; 34% in 65+) in 2025; targeting approvals/launches in Europe, Japan, and Taiwan in 2026
  • $200M U.K. COVID order for spring 2026; additional fall campaign supply expected
  • Strategic multi‑year agreements in Mexico (5‑year respiratory supply) and Taiwan; continued progress under Brazil agreement
  • From 2027, expansion into European respiratory vaccines market as competitor pandemic contract expires; expected launches of MNEXT Spike, standalone flu (mRNA‑1010), and flu/COVID combo (mRNA‑1083)
  • 2028 potential growth from flu/COVID combo and norovirus launches across many markets; PA commercialization with Recordati targeted post‑data

Business Development

  • Global commercialization agreement with Recordati for propionic acidemia candidate (registration study ongoing)
  • Five‑year strategic supply agreement with Mexico for respiratory vaccines; new agreement with Taiwan; ongoing Brazil strategic agreement
  • Local manufacturing partnerships operational in Canada (2025) and commencing in U.K. and Australia (2026)
  • Appointed Dr. David Berman as Chief Development Officer (effective March 2); acknowledgment of outgoing leader Jackie Miller

Financials

  • Q4 revenue $700M (U.S. $300M; International $400M); FY2025 revenue $1.9B (~$100M other revenue included)
  • FY2025 cost of sales $868M (-41% YoY); R&D $3.1B (-31% YoY); SG&A $1.0B (-13% YoY)
  • FY2025 net loss $2.8B (vs. $3.6B in 2024); FY EPS -$7.26; Q4 net loss $800M; Q4 EPS -$2.11
  • Year-end 2025 cash & investments $8.1B (vs. $9.5B YE2024), including $600M initial credit facility draw; ex-draw $7.6B (above prior guidance)
  • Operating expenses reduced by ~$2.2B (~30%) in 2025; exceeded original cost reduction plan by >$1B

Capital & Funding

  • $1.5B credit facility in place; $600M drawn in 2025; no additional 2026 draws assumed
  • 2026 capex guided to $200–$300M, including new U.S. Norwood fill‑finish capacity
  • Expected YE2026 cash & investments of $5.5–$6.0B; taxes negligible

Operations & Strategy

  • Expect 2026 revenue to be ~15% H1 / ~85% H2; commercial spend back‑half weighted; R&D spend relatively balanced through the year
  • Cost discipline and manufacturing efficiency gains to improve gross margin despite flat cost of sales (~$900M) in 2026
  • Local manufacturing and domestic R&D commitments underpin partnerships in U.K., Canada, and Australia
  • Retail channel focus effective: MNEXT Spike captured leading U.S. retail share in first season

Market & Outlook

  • 2026 revenue mix expected roughly balanced U.S. vs. International (vs. 62% U.S. in 2025)
  • Assumes no 2026 revenue from standalone flu (mRNA‑1010) or flu/COVID combo (mRNA‑1083); filings accepted in Europe, Canada, Australia; potential first ex‑U.S. approvals late 2026/early 2027
  • Flu/COVID combo under review in Europe and Canada; potential 2026 approvals
  • Spikevax updated formulation broadly approved; U.S. sBLA approved for high‑risk children ≥6 months
  • Emresvia (RSV) approved for adults 60+ in 40 countries and for high‑risk adults 18–59 in 31 of those
  • Norovirus phase 3 fully enrolled; interim analysis pending as cases accrue; potential 2026 data
  • Oncology: INT program with Merck has 8 ongoing phase 2/3 studies; three late‑stage studies now fully enrolled (adjuvant melanoma, adjuvant RCC, muscle‑invasive bladder); positive 5‑year phase 2 melanoma durability data; additional cancer antigen therapy advanced to phase 2

Risks Or Headwinds

  • U.S. FDA refusal‑to‑file for flu (mRNA‑1010) introduces regulatory uncertainty; Type A meeting requested
  • Embedded expectation of continued declines in COVID vaccination rates; demand variability and heavy H2 seasonality
  • Dependence on timely international approvals and expiration of competitor contract to access the EU respiratory market (post‑2026)
  • Ongoing operating losses and cash burn despite large cash balance
  • Manufacturing ramp and local site execution risks; clinical and regulatory risks across late‑stage pipeline

Sentiment: MIXED

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the MRNA Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

Fundamentals Overview

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📊 AI Financial Analysis

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Earnings Data: Q Ending 2025-12-31

"Moderna reported revenue of $678 million for Q4 2025, with a net loss of $826 million, translating to an EPS of -$2.11. The company's free cash flow was negative at -$870 million. Comparing year-over-year figures shows a decline in revenue. On the balance sheet, total assets stood at $12.34 billion with total liabilities of $3.69 billion, resulting in a healthy equity position of $8.65 billion. The company maintains a solid cash position, with net debt at -$1.33 billion, indicating more cash than debt. Operating cash flows were negative, reflecting current operational challenges. There were no dividends or stock repurchases reported. Analyst sentiment suggests a cautious outlook with a consensus price target of $30. The company is navigating a period of increased R&D and lower product sales, impacting short-term earnings but potentially setting up for long-term innovation. Given the negative earnings and cash flows, the firm's current valuation appears conservative, reflected in analyst price targets."

Revenue Growth

Neutral

Revenue decreased year-over-year, highlighting volatility in sales amid market pressure. Major revenue drivers are under evaluation.

Profitability

Neutral

Operating performance is under strain with negative EPS, reflecting high costs and declining sales impacting margins.

Cash Flow Quality

Neutral

Negative free cash flow suggests liquidity challenges, but cash reserves provide some buffer.

Leverage & Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with low net debt, indicating resilience and capacity for future investment.

Shareholder Returns

Neutral

No dividends or buybacks were executed; shareholder returns remain low with focus on reinvestment.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

Caution

Analyst sentiment is mixed with cautious price targets reflecting current operational difficulties and strategic pivots.

Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.

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SEC Filings (MRNA)

© 2026 Stock Market Info — Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Financial Profile