OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) Market Cap
OPAL Fuels Inc. has a market capitalization of $74.2M.
Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31
Price: $2.56
▲ 0.06 (2.40%)
Market Cap: 74.24M
NASDAQ · time unavailable
CEO: Adam J. Comora
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Regulated Gas
IPO Date: 2021-05-24
Website: https://www.opalfuels.com
OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) - Company Information
Market Cap: 74.24M · Sector: Utilities
OPAL Fuels Inc. engages in the production and distribution of renewable natural gas for use as a vehicle fuel for heavy and medium-duty trucking fleets. It also designs, develops, constructs, operates, and services fueling stations for trucking fleets that use natural gas to displace diesel as transportation fuel. In addition, it offers design, development, and construction services for hydrogen fueling stations. Further, the company generates and sells renewable power to utilities. As of May 1, 2022, it owned and operated 24 biogas projects. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in White Plains, New York.
Analyst Sentiment
Based on 6 ratings
Analyst 1Y Forecast: $0.00
Average target (based on 3 sources)
Consensus Price Target
Low
$5
Median
$8
High
$13
Average
$9
Potential Upside: 232.0%
Price & Moving Averages
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So what: OPAL ended 2025 with strong Q4 earnings momentum (Q4 adj. EBITDA $34.2m on $99.8m revenue) and full-year adjusted EBITDA of $90.2m, but the call repeatedly flags that performance was masking real commodity damage—D3 RIN pricing fell about $0.70, cited as an ~$33m EBITDA headwind (realized $2.45 vs $3.13). Management is guiding 2026 adj. EBITDA of $95–$110m (+~14% midpoint) and RNG production of 5.4–5.8m MMBtu, emphasizing existing-asset efficiency (utilization rising from ~70% toward ~80%; target 85–86%). Analysts pushed for Fuel Station Services realism: management admitted 2026 is largely a lag/setup year because fleet partner decisions were deferred in 2025 (tariffs, freight recession, engine overhang, X15 testing), with visibility into 2027+. Despite green shoots, the near-term Q&A tone is cautious due to macro/timing and harsh winter effects already factored into guidance.
Growth Catalysts
- RNG production ramp: 2025 RNG production 4.9 million MMBtu (+28% YoY); 4Q production >1.3 million MMBtu (+~24% vs 2024)
- Operational efficiency improvement: utilization increased from ~70% level toward ~80% in 2025
- Atlantic facility full-year contribution (commissioned late 2024; operating well and ramping quicker entering 2026)
- Higher throughput/scale flow-through from recently commissioned facilities
Business Development
- NextEra partnership: continues environmental credit trading agreement; still 50% owners in Noble and Pine Bend projects
- Fortistar $180 million preferred stock facility (Series A preferred facility) enabling infrastructure investment across RNG value chain
- Fleet partner reengagement signals for CNG/RNG (heavy-duty trucking) as macro conditions improve
Financial Highlights
- Q4 2025 revenue: $99.8 million; adjusted EBITDA: $34.2 million vs $80.0 million and $22.6 million in 4Q 2024
- Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA: $90.2 million (essentially flat YoY) despite declining environmental credit prices
- D3 RIN pricing decline: roughly $0.70 lower, cited as ~ $33 million headwind to adjusted EBITDA; realized RIN price averaged $2.45 in 2025 vs $3.13 in 2024
- 45Z credits: increased recognition in Q4; management also assumes $15–$20 million of 45Z credits in 2026 guidance
- Fuel Station Services segment: 2025 segment EBITDA $46.7 million vs $38.4 million in 2024 (+22%), but below guidance due to deferred fleet investments
- Liquidity: $184 million total liquidity at year-end (approx. $30m cash/ST investments, $138m undrawn term facility, $16m revolver availability)
Capital Funding
- Fortistar $180 million preferred stock facility; drawn $128 million under senior secured credit facility
- Preferred facility used to repay existing $100 million preferred investment
- Unused drawn capacity on preferred facility cited as $60 million (in Q&A context)
- Capital expenditures/investments: ~$16 million in the quarter; $90 million for full-year 2025; 2026 CapEx discussed as $154 million (committed projects + a smaller portion of downstream dispensing)
Strategy & Ops
- Utilization improvement program: efficiency/availability up from ~70% toward ~80% across 2025; target level cited as 85%–86% utilization as readily achievable
- Upstream process tuning to improve gas quality/output: tuning gas to higher methane/lower nitrogen/oxygen where no nitrogen rejection units; increasing nitrogen rejection performance where applicable
- Training/process-driven improvements across platforms (membrane CO2 rejection, nitrogen rejection, PSAs, etc.)
- Guidance conservatism on new project ramp: no significant delays to Cottonwood and Burlington; management chooses conservative timing assumptions so 2026 guidance relies mainly on existing assets
Market Outlook
- 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance: $95 million to $110 million (≈14% growth at midpoint vs 2025)
- 2026 RNG production guidance: 5.4 million to 5.8 million MMBtu (more than 14% YoY growth)
- Fuel Station Services timing: 2026 characterized as business-development/setup year; meaningful financial impact expected with a lag into 2027+
- RFS policy process: EPA final rule sent to OMB on Feb 25 for updated 2026/2027 RVO targets; management hopes for ordinary-course timing of release
Risks & Headwinds
- Commodity headwind: D3 RIN price decline of ~$0.70 (approx. $33 million EBITDA impact)
- Credit pathway timing risk: EPA cellulosic focus lower than liquid agricultural biofuels; management expects 'business as usual' but notes potential upward bias in D3 from broader complex
- Downstream demand lag: Fuel Station Services growth below guidance due to fleet partners deferring investment decisions on new stations and new truck purchases
- Macro/operational winter impacts: management warns of challenging winter in early 2026; snowstorms impacted production and operating costs and likely near-term dispensing volumes
- 2025 customer macro disruptions cited in Q&A: tariffs, freight recession, combustion engine overhang, and initial testing of X15-liter engine delayed deferred truck/station investments
- Policy execution/timing risk: geopolitical events could slow RFS/OMB process release
Sentiment: MIXED
Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the OPAL Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.
Fundamentals Overview
📊 AI Financial Analysis
Powered by StockMarketInfo"For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, OPAL reported a revenue of $99.8M and a net income of $2.27M, resulting in a minimal earnings per share (EPS) of $0. While the company is generating revenue, it is currently facing negative operating cash flows of -$3.52M and free cash flow of -$13.37M. The total assets stand at $959.47M against total liabilities of $461.71M, showcasing a healthy equity position of $627.76M and a net debt of -$24.41M, indicating cash reserves exceed debts. Despite a promising revenue figure, OPAL's stock has seen a 1-year price change of only 10.5%, which suggests limited price appreciation compared to its potential. A lack of dividends and recent negative cash flow trends may concern investors. The current price is at $2.21 with a price target consensus of $8.5. Overall, while the fundamentals depict stability, the negative cash flow coupled with modest market performance raises questions about growth sustainability."
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue of $99.8M indicates growth potential.
Profitability
Positive net income of $2.27M, but EPS remains minimal.
Cash Flow Quality
Negative cash flows raise concerns about operational efficiency.
Leverage & Balance Sheet
Healthy balance sheet with significant equity and low net debt.
Shareholder Returns
Price appreciation modest at 10.5% with no dividends.
Analyst Sentiment & Valuation
Price target suggests potential upside, but current performance is below expectations.
Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.