Oscar Health, Inc.

Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Market Cap

Oscar Health, Inc. has a market capitalization of $4.09B.

Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31

Price: $15.79

0.16 (1.02%)

Market Cap: 4.09B

NYSE · time unavailable

CEO: Mark Thomas Bertolini

Sector: Healthcare

Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans

IPO Date: 2021-03-03

Website: https://www.hioscar.com

Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) - Company Information

Market Cap: 4.09B · Sector: Healthcare

Oscar Health, Inc. provides health insurance products and services in the United States. The company offers Individual & Family, Small Group, and Medicare Advantage plans, as well as +Oscar, a technology driven platform designed to help providers and payor clients to engage with members and patients. It also provides reinsurance products. The company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021. Oscar Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Analyst Sentiment

48%
Hold

Based on 10 ratings

Analyst 1Y Forecast: $16.00

Average target (based on 3 sources)

Consensus Price Target

Low

$15

Median

$18

High

$18

Average

$17

Potential Upside: 7.7%

Price & Moving Averages

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AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

📘 OSCAR HEALTH INC CLASS A (OSCR) — Investment Overview

🧩 Business Model Overview

Oscar Health Inc Class A (OSCR) operates as a health insurance company committed to leveraging technology and consumer-centricity to transform the healthcare experience in the United States. Its mission is to make healthcare more accessible, affordable, and easier to navigate. Oscar provides individual, family, and small group health insurance plans primarily through health insurance exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), as well as Medicare Advantage offerings. The company focuses on direct-to-consumer insurance solutions, aiming to simplify the member experience with digital tools, personalized concierge services, and a transparent network of providers. Oscar’s vertically-integrated technology platform underpins its insurance operations, administrative processes, and member engagement strategies, with the goal of improving outcomes and lowering medical costs.

💰 Revenue Streams & Monetisation Model

Oscar Health generates revenue largely through monthly premiums collected from policyholders, either paid directly by members, employers, or through government subsidies administered via ACA exchanges. A secondary, but increasingly significant, revenue stream emerges from value-based arrangements and administrative services offered to external health plans, leveraging Oscar’s proprietary technology stack through the “+Oscar” platform. Additionally, the company earns investment income from insurance float, in line with industry norms. In Medicare Advantage and other government programs, reimbursement rates contribute a portion of total revenue. The monetization model centers on efficient risk selection, medical cost management, and scalable technology infrastructure that can be licensed to or partnered with third parties, thus diversifying revenue beyond traditional insurance underwriting.

🧠 Competitive Advantages & Market Positioning

Oscar Health differentiates itself through a robust digital-first experience and a focus on member engagement. Its platform includes a mobile app for navigation, virtual care integration, and a personalized concierge service model intended to drive higher member satisfaction, better health outcomes, and lower medical loss ratios (MLRs). Oscar’s data-driven approach and claims analytics enhance provider network management, fraud detection, and cost containment initiatives. In comparison with legacy carriers, Oscar positions itself as an agile, tech-forward organization targeting underserved markets and consumer segments affected by the complexity of traditional health insurance. Strategic partnerships, brand recognition as a healthcare innovator, and a scalable, modular technology platform provide further competitive insulation and optionality for future expansion.

🚀 Multi-Year Growth Drivers

Several secular and company-specific factors underpin Oscar Health’s long-term growth prospects: - **ACA Individual and Family Market Expansion:** Growth in enrollment through federal and state health insurance exchanges remains robust as more individuals seek compliant health coverage. - **Medicare Advantage Penetration:** Oscar’s forays into Medicare Advantage align with demographic tailwinds—an aging population and increasing consumer demand for integrated digital health experiences. - **National Footprint and Product Expansion:** Geographic expansion into new states and offerings, including small group and supplemental benefits, broaden the addressable market. - **Technology Licensing (“+Oscar” Platform):** Commercializing the proprietary tech stack as a service to other insurers, providers, or third-party administrators enables non-insurance revenue streams and improved operating leverage. - **Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations:** Collaborations with health systems, provider groups, and employers can further entrench Oscar within regional ecosystems, expanding reach and relevance.

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

Despite attractive growth prospects, Oscar Health faces several material risks: - **Sustained Underwriting Losses:** Given the persistently high medical loss ratios common in insurance startups, eventual underwriting profitability is critical. - **Regulatory and Policy Uncertainty:** The company’s business model remains exposed to shifts in federal or state healthcare policy, including potential ACA modifications, Medicaid changes, or reimbursement structure adjustments. - **Competitive Pressure from Established Carriers:** Entrenched incumbents possess greater scale, capital, and provider relationships, challenging Oscar’s ability to win market share and pricing power. - **Execution Risks in Technology Platform Monetization:** Success in generating “software as a service” revenues from external clients is unproven at scale and may expose the company to new operational and legal risks. - **Cybersecurity and Data Privacy Concerns:** As a digital health insurer, robust defenses against breaches are paramount for maintaining trust and regulatory compliance. - **Claims Volatility and Adverse Selection:** Fluctuations in claims cost, especially from unforeseen public health events or concentration of high-risk members, can impact financial results.

📊 Valuation & Market View

Valuing Oscar Health requires a hybrid approach, reflecting both its characteristics as a technology-enabled managed care provider and a potential software platform company. Traditional insurance valuation metrics focus on price-to-sales, book value multiples, and medical loss ratio trends, but Oscar’s higher reinvestment in growth and technology complicates direct peer comparisons. The company’s potential to reach scale, demonstrate path-to-profitability, and unlock non-insurance revenue streams through the +Oscar platform may justify premium valuations relative to legacy payors if execution materializes as planned. Investor sentiment tends to be sensitive to milestones in membership growth, gross margin improvement, and technology adoption rates among external partners.

🔍 Investment Takeaway

Oscar Health Inc Class A represents an innovative wager on technology-driven transformation within the U.S. health insurance sector. Its core value proposition—simplifying and personalizing health coverage through data, automation, and engagement—addresses well-documented frustrations with traditional insurance products. The company’s dual pursuit of profitable insurance operations and scalable technology revenue channels positions it to benefit from tailwinds in digital health, value-based care, and consumer-directed health markets. However, investors must weigh against meaningful execution, regulatory, and competitive risks. The long-term investment thesis rests on Oscar’s ability to achieve underwriting discipline, grow its member base efficiently, and successfully commercialize its technology platform. Those with risk tolerance and a multi-year horizon may find Oscar Health an intriguing entrant in the evolving healthcare ecosystem, provided the company delivers on its strategic ambitions.

⚠ AI-generated — informational only. Validate using filings before investing.

Management is confident that 2026 margins can rebound sharply—guiding MLR down to 82.4%–83.4% (~450 bps improvement midpoint) and operating earnings of $250M–$450M (midpoint ~+$750M YoY). They cite disciplined pricing and AI-driven efficiency (SG&A improved ~160 bps; care-guide response times down 67%). However, the Q&A exposes the real fragility: Q4 MLR misses were “vastly driven” by a $275M fourth-quarter risk adjustment true-up caused by a healthier-than-expected membership skew, and management emphasized the continued challenge of forecasting risk adjustment despite third-party data. The biggest open question is churn behavior after the subsidy “sunset”: after the Q1 drop from 3.4M enrolled to ~3.0M paid members, they expect only 1%–2% monthly churn—yet they explicitly highlighted affordability shock and whether people will pay premiums or disenroll later. Analyst pressure focused on risk-adjustment volatility and pricing adequacy as market share rises to 30%.

AI IconGrowth Catalysts

  • Record 2026 open enrollment; 3.4 million members enrolled as of Feb 1, 2026
  • Above-market growth with market share rising from 17% (2025) to 30% (2026)
  • Lifestyle product launches driving new segments and higher loyalty (Hello Menno, Cuando/diabetes Spanish-first plan “cuando cuando a?), Hive Health with Oscar (ECR plan))
  • Agentic AI bot for care guides reducing response times by 67% during peak/open enrollment
  • Oswell health agent completing 86% of member questions with high accuracy

Business Development

  • Broker partnerships expanded by 60% to manage distribution across the overall market
  • Broker enablement campaign: 11,000 new brokers onboarded; 17,000 brokers engaged with member-transition lists and broker-portal campaign builder access
  • New/expanded geographic growth focus in Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, and Texas
  • IFP and ICRA membership growth in prominent service areas (Arizona/Florida/NJ/TX named)

AI IconFinancial Highlights

  • Q4 2025 medical loss ratio (MLR): 95.4%, up 730 bps YoY
  • Q4 risk adjustment true-up: +$275 million accrual increase (membership skew healthier than expected; volatility headwind)
  • Partially offsetting items: +$99 million favorable in-year development and +$36 million favorable prior period development (claims run-out)
  • Full year 2025 revenue: $11.7B (+28% YoY)
  • Full year 2025 SG&A expense ratio: 17.5% (improved ~160 bps YoY)
  • Full year 2025 MLR: 87.4% (up 570 bps YoY)
  • Risk transfer as % of direct premiums: ~18.5% for 2025 (+390 bps YoY)
  • 2025 loss from operations: ~$396M; adjusted EBITDA loss: ~$280M (both materially driven by higher risk adjustment payable)
  • 2026 revenue guidance: $18.7B to $19.0B (midpoint +61% YoY)
  • 2026 medical loss ratio guidance: 82.4% to 83.4% (improvement ~450 bps YoY at midpoint)
  • 2026 SG&A guidance: 15.8% to 16.3% (~140 bps YoY improvement at midpoint)
  • 2026 earnings from operations: $250M to $450M (midpoint implies ~1.9% operating margin)

AI IconCapital Funding

  • Convertible notes offering (due 2030): $410M issued; $360M net proceeds (completed in Q3 2025)
  • New $475M 3-year revolving credit facility entered after the notes
  • Cash & investments ended FY2025: ~$5.5B total (incl. $414M at the parent)
  • Insurance subsidiaries capital in surplus: ~$1.0B (incl. ~$315M excess capital)
  • Regulatory capital rule-of-thumb disclosed: ~$50M capital per $1B of premiums (reflecting ~55% quota share ceding for 2026)

AI IconStrategy & Ops

  • AI/technology efficiency: lowered administrative costs by ~160 bps YoY while significantly increasing membership
  • Agentic AI bot reduced care-guide response times by 67% during peak periods
  • Oswell agent completes 86% of questions received with high accuracy
  • Measured approach to geographic expansion (distribution-led rather than aggressive expansion)

AI IconMarket Outlook

  • Start of Q2 2026 paid members expected: ~3.0 million (from 3.4M enrolled as of Feb 1; +58% YoY)
  • Churn cadence: after Q1 dip, churn expected to revert to ~1% to 2% per month (pre-ARPA-like) from end of Q1 through end of year
  • OEP ended with 3.4 million lives enrolled; current paid membership expectations: close to last year by January 2026 (PADs close to last year, slightly lower than 2023/2024)

AI IconRisks & Headwinds

  • Risk adjustment forecasting difficulty remains: management expects risk adjustment as % of direct revenues to increase year-over-year (25% to 26%) to ~20% in 2026 per their phrasing (analyst focus on volatility; management indicates continued uncertainty for ‘hardest part of forecasting risk adjustment’)
  • Concentration of healthier-than-market membership drove Q4 risk adjustment accrual up $275M (true-up volatility)
  • Enhanced premium tax credit expiration driving potential elevated churn: Q1 expected churn dip from 3.4M to 3.0M; longer-term churn uncertainty tied to ‘how many people… actually pay’ and whether they drop due to out-of-pocket affordability stress
  • Utilization pull-forward pressure into Q4: outpatient/professional increased (members accelerating care as subsidies expired); also mentions tick-up in substance abuse disorder and mental health benefits and some labs categories
  • Market contraction uncertainty: overall market membership currently shrunk ~5% vs prior year; management expects contraction potentially tracking toward lower end of original 20% to 30% range

Sentiment: CAUTIOUS

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the OSCR Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

Fundamentals Overview

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📊 AI Financial Analysis

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Earnings Data: Q Ending 2025-12-31

"Oscar Health reported revenue of $2.81B for the most recent period ending 2025-12-31, with net income of -$0.35B and EPS of -$1.24, translating to a negative net margin. Despite accounting losses, cash flow was strong: operating cash flow was $0.67B and free cash flow was $0.66B, supported by relatively low capex of -$0.01B. Leverage and liquidity metrics are mixed—total assets were $6.33B versus total liabilities of $5.34B, leaving equity of $0.98B. Net debt was -$2.34B (i.e., net cash), indicating substantial balance-sheet flexibility. On shareholder returns, the picture is constrained by share price performance: the stock is down -9.56% over 1 year and -37.94% over 6 months, with -21.64% year-to-date, and there were no dividends paid. Valuation signals (price target consensus $16.4 versus current price $11.73) suggest the market may be discounting forward improvement expectations, but with negative earnings and recent weakness, sentiment remains cautious. Overall, investors are largely reliant on cash generation and balance-sheet strength to offset profitability headwinds."

Revenue Growth

Caution

Revenue is sizable at $2.81B, but the dataset doesn’t include prior-period comparisons to confirm growth. Performance has been weak (-21.64% YTD; -37.94% 6M), which can reflect slowing expectations or margin pressure.

Profitability

Neutral

Net income was -$0.35B and EPS was -$1.24, indicating negative profitability and a drag on earnings-based valuation despite strong cash generation.

Cash Flow Quality

Positive

Free cash flow was $0.66B with operating cash flow of $0.67B and minimal capex (-$0.01B). Dividends were $0, so cash flow’s main role is funding operations and balance-sheet strength rather than returning capital.

Leverage & Balance Sheet

Good

Equity of $0.98B vs. assets of $6.33B supports solvency, and net debt of -$2.34B implies net cash rather than leverage stress, improving resilience.

Shareholder Returns

Neutral

Total shareholder value is limited by capital appreciation: the stock is down -9.56% (1Y) and -37.94% (6M), and there were no dividends or buybacks provided in the data.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

Fair

The current price of $11.73 is below the consensus analyst target of $16.4 (high $18, low $14), implying potential upside if expectations improve. However, negative EPS reduces confidence in earnings-driven re-rating.

Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.

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SEC Filings (OSCR)

© 2026 Stock Market Info — Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Financial Profile