📢 Earnings Summary — PEG

PSEG delivered a solid Q3 with strong utility results from new base rates and narrowed 2025 EPS guidance to $4.00–$4.06, targeting the upper half. Nuclear operations remained reliable, with Hope Creek’s shift to a 24-month cycle and Salem’s planned uprate supporting future output. Management reaffirmed 5%–7% long-term EPS growth and highlighted a robust balance sheet and liquidity to fund $22.5–$26 billion of capex without new equity, supporting dividend growth. While the company sees continued data center and large-load interest, it emphasized PJM/NJ’s growing resource adequacy gap and policy uncertainty, though near-term customer bill impacts from capacity markets are expected to be muted by market mechanisms.

📈 Growth Highlights

• Narrowed 2025 non-GAAP operating EPS guidance to $4.00–$4.06 (from $3.94–$4.06), targeting the upper half.
• Reaffirmed 5%–7% non-GAAP operating EPS CAGR through 2029.
• Customer counts grew ~1% YoY for both electric and gas under CIP decoupling.
• Nuclear YTD generation up to 23.8 TWh (vs. 23.3 TWh in 2024); fleet capacity factor 93.7% YTD.
• Salem uprate project to add ~200 MW during 2027–2029; Hope Creek moved to 24-month fuel cycle, supporting higher output and long-term O&M savings.

🔨 Business Development

• Long Island Power Authority extended PSEG’s operations service provider contract 5 years through 2030.
• PSEG supportive of NJ legislation enabling EDCs to compete to supply new in-state generation; company has viable sites with grid and pipeline access and prevailing-wage build capability.
• Exploring multi-year contracting of nuclear output to enhance earnings visibility.
• Ongoing engagement with policymakers on resource adequacy and affordability solutions.
• Data center/load growth pipeline in NJ continues (e.g., incremental load identified for a Kenilworth project in PJM TEAC materials); activity skewed to smaller projects rather than hyperscale.

💵 Financial Performance

• Q3 2025 GAAP EPS $1.24 (vs. $1.04); non-GAAP operating EPS $1.13 (vs. $0.90).
• PSE&G Q3 non-GAAP operating earnings: $515M (vs. $379M), driven by new base electric and gas distribution rates (effective Oct 2024) recovering >$3B of prior investments and higher working capital recovery.
• Distribution margin +$0.30/share YoY; O&M +$0.02; depreciation +$0.01; interest +$0.02; tax timing +$0.02.
• PSEG Power & Other Q3 non-GAAP operating earnings: $50M (vs. $69M); lower generation from Hope Creek refueling offset by stronger pricing; O&M -$0.05/share on outage.
• Nuclear output: 7.9 TWh in Q3 (vs. 8.1 TWh); fleet capacity factor 92.4% in Q3.
• Declared ~3,500 MW of eligible nuclear capacity in PJM BRA at $329/MW-day for EY 2026/27.
• Expect consistent and sustainable dividend growth supported by earnings and balance sheet.

🏦 Capital & Funding

• Regulated capex: ~$1.0B in Q3; $2.7B YTD; FY25 plan ~ $3.8B.
• 5-year capital plan: $22.5B–$26B total (regulated plan $21B–$24B through 2029), with no need for new equity issuances or asset sales.
• Energy efficiency programs commenced Q1 2025: up to $2.9B over 6 years, including ~$1B on-bill repayment options.
• Liquidity at 9/30/25: ~$3.6B (including ~$330M cash).
• Debt activity: Aug issuance of $450M 4.9% secured MTNs due 2035 at PSE&G; redeemed $550M 0.8% notes at maturity.
• Variable-rate debt ~4% of total; includes $400M 364-day term loan at PSEG Power maturing Dec 2025 and commercial paper.
• Moody’s updated credit opinions in October with no rating or outlook changes.

🧠 Operations & Strategy

• Focus on reliability, operational excellence, and cost discipline; T&D and nuclear reported strong reliability and resiliency in the quarter.
• CIP decouples weather/economic sales variability; customer growth is the primary distribution margin driver.
• Hope Creek achieved a 499-day continuous run and transitioned to a 24-month refueling cycle.
• Salem uprate advancing, adding ~200 MW of carbon-free, dispatchable capacity in 2027–2029.
• Active collaboration with policymakers to address PJM/NJ resource adequacy and affordability; readiness to develop new in-state generation as needed.

🌍 Market Outlook

• Significant and growing supply-demand imbalance in NJ and PJM; imports exceed 40% of NJ consumption.
• Expected capacity market bill impact next June likely tempered by FERC-approved price collar and NJ BGS 3-year gradualism (assuming other supply costs remain unchanged).
• DOE notice now a FERC rulemaking to accelerate interconnection of large loads; potential final action by Apr 30, 2026.
• Company to introduce 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance and update capex/rate base outlook in Feb 2026.
• Reaffirmed long-term 5%–7% EPS CAGR supported by regulated investments and nuclear PTC thresholds.

⚠ Risks & Headwinds

• Resource adequacy shortfall in PJM/NJ could pressure reliability and customer affordability if not addressed.
• Policy and regulatory uncertainty tied to NJ election outcomes and future market design.
• Potential capacity cost increases; mitigation depends on price collars and BGS gradualism.
• Higher interest rates increased interest expense; some exposure to variable-rate debt (term loan and CP).
• Timing and outcomes of FERC interconnection reforms and large-load integration remain uncertain.
• Data center/customer load development can be sensitive to local politics and permitting.
• Weather variability (partly mitigated by CIP).

AI-generated earnings recap sourced from company results & conference call observations. Not investment advice — verify with official filings.