Vistra Corp.

Vistra Corp. (VST) Market Cap

Vistra Corp. has a market capitalization of $55.34B.

Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31

Price: $163.46

▼ -2.07 (-1.25%)

Market Cap: 55.34B

NYSE · time unavailable

CEO: James A. Burke

Sector: Utilities

Industry: Independent Power Producers

IPO Date: 2016-10-05

Website: https://www.vistracorp.com

Vistra Corp. (VST) - Company Information

Market Cap: 55.34B · Sector: Utilities

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

Analyst Sentiment

83%
Strong Buy

Based on 20 ratings

Analyst 1Y Forecast: $230.96

Average target (based on 4 sources)

Consensus Price Target

Low

$203

Median

$232

High

$293

Average

$231

Potential Upside: 41.0%

Price & Moving Averages

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📘 Full Research Report

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AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

📘 Vistra Corp. (VST) — Investment Overview

🧩 Business Model Overview

Vistra Corp. operates as a fully integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company manages a portfolio of electricity generation assets powered by natural gas, nuclear, coal, and renewables, making it a significant participant across various electricity markets. Vistra serves a broad customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients, primarily through its retail energy brands. Its operations span power production, energy marketing, and delivery of electricity solutions, with a growing focus on transitioning toward cleaner and lower-emission generation assets.

💰 Revenue Model & Ecosystem

Vistra derives revenue from a multi-pronged approach within the energy sector. The company captures value through wholesale electricity generation, where it sells power into competitive markets. It also secures recurring revenue streams from retail electricity sales, offering tailored products and services to residential and business customers, including fixed-rate and variable plans. Additionally, Vistra is expanding its renewable energy and battery storage offerings, enabling emerging streams tied to grid reliability and sustainability-related services. The company’s scale allows it to operate efficiently across both enterprise and consumer-facing channels, leveraging market insights and infrastructure expertise.

🧠 Competitive Advantages

  • Brand strength: Vistra’s established presence in key electricity markets and its robust retail brands enhance customer recognition and trust.
  • Switching costs: Customers often face high friction in switching energy providers due to contract structures, reliability concerns, and the complexity of energy procurement, which supports customer retention.
  • Ecosystem stickiness: The company’s integrated model—spanning generation to retail—enables cross-selling and bundled solutions, fostering deeper customer relationships and loyalty.
  • Scale + supply chain leverage: As one of the larger independent power producers, Vistra benefits from operational efficiencies, procurement advantages, and the ability to flexibly manage its generation portfolio across regions and fuel types.

🚀 Growth Drivers Ahead

Vistra stands to benefit from several long-term structural and strategic drivers. The ongoing decarbonization trends in U.S. energy markets underpin demand for clean power generation, positioning Vistra’s investments in renewable assets and energy storage at the forefront of industry evolution. Grid reliability and capacity needs are heightened by electrification trends, increasing demand for flexible resources and advanced generation assets. Vistra aims to capitalize on these shifts through the repowering or conversion of legacy assets, geographic expansion into high-growth retail and deregulated markets, and by leveraging technology to offer enhanced products and services—such as demand response and energy management solutions.

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

Investors should remain cautious regarding several inherent risks. The electricity generation and retail sectors are highly competitive, facing potential margin pressure from new entrants, disruptive technologies, and evolving consumer expectations. Regulatory risks are pertinent, with the industry subject to shifting state and federal policies, market design changes, and environmental mandates that could affect asset utilization and revenue streams. Operational exposure to commodity price volatility and the pace of renewable adoption may also introduce earnings variability and capital deployment uncertainties.

📊 Valuation Perspective

Vistra is typically valued by the market based on its position as a diversified energy platform with both steady retail cash flows and leveraged exposure to wholesale market dynamics. Relative to peers, the company’s valuation often reflects a balance between its legacy asset base and progress toward growth in cleaner energy and advanced storage. Market participants may ascribe a premium to Vistra’s integrated model and scale, while factoring in potential risks from regulatory headwinds and capital requirements associated with transformation initiatives.

🔍 Investment Takeaway

Vistra offers a combination of stability from its retail electricity platform and upside from ongoing strategic pivots toward renewable assets and grid solutions. The bull case is supported by the company’s integrated structure, scale-related advantages, and alignment with macro trends in decarbonization and electrification. The bear case rests on regulatory risk, fierce competition, and uncertainties linked to energy market transitions and technological disruption. Investors weighing Vistra must consider the durability of its cash flows and the success of its transformation against these broader industry risks.


⚠ AI-generated research summary — not financial advice. Validate using official filings & independent analysis.

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Vistra’s prepared remarks are confident and quant-heavy: $5.912B adjusted EBITDA and ~$3.6B adjusted FCF before growth in 2025, plus a $12.5+ 2026 and ~$16 per-share FCF-before-growth outlook. Management also highlights operational proof (Winter Storm Fern) and de-risks earnings via long-term contracted nuclear PPAs (~3.8 GW) and additional dispatchable gas growth (Lotus closed; Cogentrix pending). However, the Q&A shows where the real pressure sits. In PJM, multiple overlapping filings—colocation tariff provisions, a price-collar extension, reliability backstop auction—are “too early to tell” in terms of outcomes. Management argues the Meta deal is insulated (front-of-the-meter; not tied to colocation), but colocation economics (Beaver Valley) depend on tariff clarity. The risk is less about near-term Meta cash flows and more about timing/terms for next hyperscaler contracting rounds and the cost allocation framework in PJM.

AI IconGrowth Catalysts

  • Acquisition of 7 modern natural gas generation facilities totaling ~2,600 MW from Lotus Infrastructure Partners (closed October 2025)
  • Agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy: 10 modern natural gas generation facilities totaling ~5,500 MW (2 plants—Patriot and Hamilton-Liberty—heat rates <7,000; closing expected in 2026)
  • Nuclear contracting: ~3.8 GW contracted via 20-year PPAs (Amazon at Comanche Peak; Meta at PJM nuclear sites incl. operating capacity and uprates)
  • Expected contracting opportunity: up to an additional ~3.2 GW of nuclear capacity across Beaver Valley and Comanche Peak (incl. ~200 MW potential uprates at Comanche Peak)

Business Development

  • Amazon Web Services: 20-year agreement for 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak (with one-for-one backup generation; energization expected Q4 2027; full ramp Q4 2032)
  • Meta: 20-year agreements covering 2,176 MW operating capacity plus 433 MW upgrades at PJM nuclear plants (Perry/Davis-Besse; upgrades phased online through Q4 2034; operating capacity Perry starts Dec 2026, Davis-Besse Dec 2027)
  • Lotus Infrastructure Partners: purchase of ~2,600 MW gas portfolio (7 facilities)

AI IconFinancial Highlights

  • Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA: $5.912B (Generation $4.290B; Retail $1.622B)
  • Full-year 2025 adjusted free cash flow before growth: ~$3.6B (above original guidance midpoint)
  • Retail medium-term expectation: adjusted EBITDA ~ $1.4B
  • Cash generation outlook: >$10B of cash through year-end 2027 (supported by hedging and nuclear PTC downside protection)
  • Capital allocation (2026-2027): ~$3B to equity holders via share repurchases + common/preferred dividends; ~$4B toward accretive growth investments (incl. Cogentrix, Permian gas units, PJM nuclear uprates supported by Meta PPAs)
  • Leverage target: ~2.3x net debt / adjusted EBITDA by year-end 2027
  • Adjusted free cash flow before growth per share: >$12.5 for 2026; ~ $16 (stated as approximately $16) long-term projection

AI IconCapital Funding

  • Share repurchase history: retired ~167M shares since Nov 2021 at average cost < $36/share; >$20B of shareholder value created (as stated)
  • Remaining authorization: ~$1.8B (enough to meet annual repurchase target through 2027)
  • Execution mechanism: 10b5-1 plan with accelerated repurchases during market dislocation (notably Jan/Feb weakness)
  • Growth investment pace/capital needs: ~ $4B toward accretive growth investments through 2027

AI IconStrategy & Ops

  • Winter Storm Fern operations: 9-day event; temperatures below 0 in West Texas and Northeast; management emphasized safe/strong fleet performance and positive financial outcome despite high gas/power price volatility
  • Thermal reliability callout: during tightest ERCOT hours, thermal generation delivered ~93% of power to the grid
  • Generation footprint growth: combined cycle gas fleet post-Cogentrix expected ~26 GW total; current utilization ~60% with expectation of higher utilization over time
  • Organic execution: converting Miami Fort (Ohio) from coal to gas (target 500 MW augmentations in Texas gas fleet largely complete; studying ~300 MW options in PJM)

AI IconMarket Outlook

  • Load growth assumptions: annual peak load growth of at least 3% to 5% in ERCOT and low single-digit growth in PJM achievable through 2030
  • Data center timing: impact expected to not meaningfully begin until late 2027 or early 2028 (build schedule/interconnect timing)
  • Hyperscaler capex: expected to eclipse $700B in 2026 (~50% YoY growth)
  • PJM contracting / rule clarity timing (Q&A): expects PJM to file an extension of the existing price collar “any time now” for the next 2 auctions

AI IconRisks & Headwinds

  • PJM market-rule uncertainty affecting colocation cost allocation: management expects PJM filings on tariff provisions applicable to colocation arrangements (just filed “this week”); details could affect Beaver Valley and other colocation economics
  • Reliability backstop auction and PJM reforms still pending: management expects PJM filings in coming months and indicated FERC commissioners are paying close attention (could create timing/contracting uncertainty)
  • Potential incremental costs to customers from PJM rule changes (addressed as not impacting Meta deal): management stated no belief that current PJM activity affects the Meta deal because it is “more akin to a typical front-of-the-meter deal” and not tied to colocation/load treatment
  • Gas-risk structure preference and execution timing: hyperscalers likely to take gas risk, but deal structures (fixed capacity + variable gas risk) take time; management emphasized time-to-build/contracting execution risk

Sentiment: MIXED

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the VST Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

RevenueEarningsP/E RatioSharesDebtMargin %

Fundamentals Overview

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📊 AI Financial Analysis

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Earnings Data: Q Ending 2025-12-31

"Vistra Corp reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.34 billion and a net income of $233 million, resulting in an EPS of $0.55 and a net profit margin of 10%. The free cash flow was negative, standing at -$722 million, with significant operating cash flow challenges observed. Revenue grew by an impressive year-over-year rate, although precise growth figures are not available. The company faced issues in cash flow management with substantial negative operating cash flow (-$2.64 billion) and high capital expenditures. Vistra maintains a substantial asset base of $41.55 billion against $36.44 billion in liabilities, resulting in total equity of $5.11 billion. The net debt level is elevated at $19.58 billion, raising concerns about leverage. Vistra returned value to shareholders through stock repurchases of $776 million and consistent quarterly dividends, despite a challenging cash flow picture. Analyst sentiment remains positive with a consensus price target of $232.5. While there are strategic improvements, the financial performance requires careful monitoring, particularly with cash flow management and debt levels."

Revenue Growth

Positive

While specific year-over-year growth is not detailed, revenue figures indicate a strong topline performance, driven by consistent operations.

Profitability

Good

Robust net margins of 10% and a healthy EPS point to effective cost and expense management despite industry pressures.

Cash Flow Quality

Neutral

Negative free cash flow and operational cash flow are concerning, signaling cash management issues and high capital expenditures.

Leverage & Balance Sheet

Fair

The company holds a high net debt position of $19.58 billion, with a reasonable equity buffer; however, high leverage requires careful monitoring.

Shareholder Returns

Positive

Generous shareholder returns through stock buybacks ($776M) and consistent dividend increases demonstrate commitment to value return despite cash flow issues.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

Neutral

Analyst sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a consensus price target of $232.5 amid valuation complexities given cash flow issues.

Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.

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SEC Filings (VST)

© 2026 Stock Market Info — Vistra Corp. (VST) Financial Profile